With the majority of Bluebirds agreeing that Mark Hudson’s recent contract renewal was well deserved, it seems an appropriate time to assess how well our defence is doing. Particularly since the arrival of Ben Turner, this season’s defence is seen to be reliable and solid, but do statistics prove this impression to be correct?
Following the 0-0 draw with Doncaster (14/01/2012), Cardiff have conceded 27 goals in 26 games of the 2011-12 season, with a fairly even split between goals conceded at home (14 in 12 games) and away (13 in 14). Based on these figures, we are on course to concede 48 goals this season (27 at home, 21 away), whilst we are also on course for an impressive 18 clean-sheets (we currently have 10 in 26 games). To put this into context, the best defence currently in the division belongs to West Ham, on course to concede 41 goals (currently 23 in 26), whereas the worst are Ipswich, currently averaging 90 goals conceded across the whole season (51 in 26 so far).
It’s clear to see Cardiff are far nearer the top than the bottom then. In fact we are currently 8th overall, and Southampton are the only club in the top 7 to have conceded more, but the gap to most above us in this table is 1 or 2 goals so it is fair to say the defensive is performing well, if not superbly.
So, if the impression that The Bluebirds’ backline is one of the better around seems justified, what about the suggestion that it matches up favourably to those in seasons gone by? One way of gaining a fair idea of this is by looking at the statistics for the previous four full seasons (not including play-off games), thus going as far back as 2007-08 season, where the most common centre-back pairing was Johnson and Loovens, a partnership very highly regarded by many City fans. The most striking thing about the numbers is the sheer consistency: in 2010-11, Cardiff conceded a total of 54 goals with 13 clean-sheets; in 2009-10 it was again 54 with 13 clean-sheets; 2008-09 saw 53 conceded with 14 clean-sheets; while in 2007-08 we let in 55, once again keeping 13 clean-sheets. Not for the first time, it can be said that Dave Jones’ side were nothing if not predictable! In comparison to previous years then, Cardiff are on course to concede fewer goals and keep more clean sheets – a definite improvement.
What has caused this improvement then? One explanation for our seemingly improved performance may be our choice of system. For much of the season we have been playing a 5 man midfield, which offers more protection to the defence than Jones’ four-man midfield. Our style of play could also play a part in this: in the previous four seasons we conceded comfortably more in away games than home ones. This season that pattern is reversed, suggesting that while Jones was punished for playing equally openly away as at home, Malky is content to keep it tight on our travels (hence the number of dull away draws), while opening up more at the Cardiff City Stadium. It could also be argued that the acquisitions of Turner and Taylor have significantly strengthened our back 5 in terms of adding greater individual quality.
Another reason may be the relatively settled defensive unit: Marshall has started all but one game in goal, while McNaughton, Hudson and Taylor all have above 20 starts in defence. The only position left is that of Hudson’s partner and even that has been consistent in that Turner has been the clear first-choice once fit (he has 16 starts, Gerrard 13). The other seasons in question saw far more disruption: the 2009-10 season was the only one of the four under Jones examined where one ‘keeper played more than 40 games. It was similar story in defence, other than the 5 mentioned above, Darcy Blake is the only defender with more than one or 2 starts (7) and a number of these were in midfield. The only year with a defence seemingly as settled was 2008-09, where 5 defenders each started at least half of our league games: McNaughton, Purse, Gyepes, Johnson & Comminges(!), even then, this backline faced the disruption of playing under 4 ‘keepers who made more than 5 starts each (Heaton, Enckelman, Taylor, Konstantopoulos). Perhaps this serves as a warning: injuries and suspensions do mount up during a season, affecting the consistency of selection, and may move our projected total nearer to the mark of previous years.
Over the four full Championship seasons examined, the average total number of goals conceded by those who finished in the play-off positions was 49. This is slightly lower than Cardiff’s projected total, but it’s also worth noting that in the past 2 seasons we have been comfortably above that figure and finished fourth – the goals going in at the other end make a difference too! Interestingly, the average number of goals conceded by teams in the top 2 positions is 47, just 2 lower than the average for teams 3rd – 6th, perhaps proving once again that one or two goals can make all the difference (just ask our 2008-09 team!). If Cardiff can maintain their current defensive efforts, the statistics suggest we are on course for a play-off finish, if they can improve on their projected total and keep scoring at the other end, The Bluebirds could be flying even higher.
