There are nine league games sandwiched between this week’s international break and the Championship’s next recess, and for Cardiff City it’s a run of fixtures that starts with Reading and ends with Reading; a mid-winter gauntlet that could define the Bluebirds’ season.
Of these upcoming clashes only one is against a side currently in the top half of the table, third-placed Middlesbrough. The remaining eight games pit Malky Mackay’s men against lower-half opposition, presenting them with an opportunity to amass a decent points tally and in a division notorious for being tighter than Joan Rivers’ face, a fruitful period could see Cardiff edge away from their rivals and set up camp in the play-off places.
It’s often said that the Championship is an unpredictable league; with everyone capable of beating each other, but wouldn’t it be nice to peer into a crystal ball and discover what lies in wait for the Bluebirds over the coming nine games? Well I’m about to make your wishes come true with the unveiling of an infallible scientific formula.
If one dissects the current league standings into quarters rather than halves, some interesting patterns emerge regarding City’s results against teams residing in each zone.
They have played four of the top six (not including themselves of course, that would be silly), winning three of them and drawing a game against Blackpool that ought to have been a victory had it not been for an extravagant level of profligacy in front of goal. The Bluebirds have had similar success against the teams propping up the table; of the bottom six, Barnsley, Bristol City and Doncaster have been defeated in comfortable fashion while games against the remaining three strugglers are due in the coming weeks.
It’s not all sunshine, lollipops and rainbows though. Cardiff have played every side currently placed seventh to twelfth, winning only once, drawing twice and losing to Hull, Brighton and Peterborough – the only three losses of Mackay’s reign – while half of the teams situated between thirteenth and eighteenth have been faced with the games against Ipswich, Portsmouth and Burnley all ending in stalemate.
Ignore the fact that the fixtures against the relevant teams took place when the standings weren’t as they are now and just marvel at the simplistic brilliance of this flawless discovery; the top six tend to be defeated, the bottom six are beaten comfortably, a game against an upper-mid table side is likely to end in a loss, and a clash versus lower-mid table opposition is a certain draw.
What connotations will this incredible scientific breakthrough have for the Bluebirds’ impending fixtures? Will they triumph against teams in the tables’ nether-regions and falter against mediocrities’ finest?
It would be foolish to predict upcoming results based solely on this bulletproof theory, not least because by Christmas the table will look like a distant, slightly older relative of the present one. I may be many things but I’m certainly no fool, which is why I’ve recruited the help of the BBC’s football predictor to give an extra layer of impenetrable certainty to these forthcoming prophecies:
19th Nov – Reading (a) DRAW (0-0)
At fourteenth in the table Reading lay firmly in the gut of the Bluebirds’ lower-mid table excitement vacuum. With six draws so far this season, four of those at the Madejski, Reading are the league’s draw specialists, alongside Cardiff and four others. They boast one of the division’s most frugal defences but are hampered by the least prolific attack outside the bottom six (and the freakishly goal shy Hull), and with half of City’s away clashes ending on level terms a certain stalemate beckons. Sadly, Cardiff fans hoping for payback on the teams that inflicted 2010/11’s end-of-season embarrassment will have to wait a few more weeks.
22nd Nov – Coventry (a) WIN (4-0)
Relegation certainties Coventry have won only twice this season and have picked up a meagre twelve points. Worse still for the Sky Blues, their hammering at home to West Ham in their previous game will leave them marooned at the foot of the table, in the category of opposition against whom Cardiff have a 100% win ratio. This success rate may have been achieved in games at the Cardiff City Stadium but the trip to the Ricoh Arena should still be like taking candy from a baby for the Bluebirds, or at least like taking three points from big, bald, baby-lookalike Andy Thorn.
26th Nov – Forest (h) DRAW (1-1)
Forest’s victory over Ipswich the preceding weekend has hoisted them out of the bottom six and its guarantee of failure, and into eighteenth, the draw quarter. It’s the third November in a row that City have hosted the Tricky Trees and this has all the hallmarks of an epic one-aller similar to the encounter at the CCS in 2009. The Bluebirds will take an early second-half lead before a last-minute Dexter Blackstock strike levels the score on his return to the ground where he suffered a nasty knee injury last year. Ironically, the stalemate will see Forest drop back into the table’s danger zone.
4th Dec – Birmingham (h) DRAW (1-1)
Oh joy, by virtue of playing four games fewer than the rest of the division Chris Hughton’s Europa League adventurers are another team placed firmly in the heart of dullsville. The pessimism corner brigade will be thrilled with consecutive home draws but Cardiff may have dodged a bullet. The point gained from this game and the three from their subsequent win over Hull lift Birmingham to tenth – if this encounter had taken place a week later the Bluebirds would have been doomed. As it stands City remain fourth, one point behind Middlesbrough and five adrift of second-placed West Ham.
10th Dec – Millwall (a) WIN (3-1)
Thank Gawd for the lowly Lions. After only one win in four for the Bluebirds, Kenny Jacket’s men provide the perfect fodder, and by ‘eck it’s a tasty victory. A comprehensive demolition of the division’s twentieth team sees Cardiff pick up their fourth away win of the campaign and neatly sets up a third versus fourth battle with Middlesbrough the following weekend. Poor Millwall never stood a chance and the remainder of their season promises to be a tough old slog, their only saving grace is that they aren’t Coventry.
17th Dec – Middlesbrough (h) WIN (1-0)
It’s appropriate that this clash takes place in the chilly grip of mid-December because, as everyone knows, revenge is a dish best served cold. It was the humiliating capitulation to Boro at this venue in May that ended Cardiff’s automatic promotion hopes and the Bluebirds’ impressive record against the top six this season will allow them to take a small measure of retribution on their dream slayers. This early Christmas present means the Taffsiders usurp the Teesiders in the race for promotion and it extends Cardiff’s unbeaten run to ten games, their longest spell undefeated since March 2010.
26th Dec – Watford (a) WIN (2-1)
Malky Mackay’s return to his former employers’ gaff promises to be a balls-out-ding-dong-toe-to-toe scrap befitting of Boxing Day. Don Cowie and Andrew Taylor bag the win for the Bluebirds over a Watford side long acquainted with the league’s relegation zone. Cardiff fans travel back down the M4 to tend to their turkey leftovers in jubilant mood after three consecutive victories for the first time under Mackay. Regardless of the result against Forest on New Year’s Eve they will end 2011 as they started it, in the Championship’s top three.
31st Dec – Forest (a) WIN (4-2)
A Christmas miracle occurred on Boxing Day! Forest’s loss at home to Peterborough confirmed they’d head into this encounter as one of the Championship’s bottom six, or as it’s also known ‘Cardiff City’s din-dins’. A fourth win on the spin sees the Bluebirds close the gap to second-place to two points and ensures they end the year on a high. Tonight, City fans are going to party like it’s 1999, although back then they had Jorn Schwinkendorf, Winston Faerber and a competent Robert Earnshaw for company. Oh how times have changed.
2nd Jan – Reading (h) DRAW (0-0)
And so we finish where we began, a nil-all draw with Reading, bringing to a halt a successive run of victories. The Bluebirds can’t be blamed though, if Brian McDermott insists on keeping his side in the quarter of the table designated draw-friendly then try as they might a scoreless impasse will always be reached. It shouldn’t take the shine off an unbeaten run of results (five wins, four draws) that has seen City climb to third in the table. They may remain four points away from the automatic promotion spots, but they’re also only four points from top and nine points clear of seventh. And with Cardiff three points better off than at the same stage last season promotion surely beckons.
Place your bets now, science has spoken.
Tags: Birmingham, Boro, Cardiff City, Coventry, Forest, Millwall, Predictions, Reading, Watford
